As another month passes, it's time for a fresh look at the Sarnia-Lambton real estate market. The March 2025 market update reveals some interesting trends, particularly as Sarnia continues to be influenced by broader economic conditions, given its proximity to the U.S. border. Let’s dive into the numbers, analyze the shifts, and explore opportunities for buyers and sellers in today’s market.
Residential Sales: Stability in Numbers
Looking at year-to-date residential sales, there has been a slight increase compared to last year. By the end of March 2025, 354 homes were sold, compared to 351 in the same period in 2024—an increase of just four sales. Similarly, March 2025 saw 132 sales, exactly the same as March 2024.
However, what stands out is the sharp increase in active listings. This March, 1,331 homes were on the market, compared to just 1,114 last year, reflecting a notable increase in inventory. This shift impacts market conditions significantly, as we’ll explore further.
Inventory and Market Conditions
The months of inventory in the Sarnia-Lambton market now stand at 11 months. To put this into perspective:
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A seller’s market typically has 0-3 months of inventory.
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A balanced market falls within 3-6 months of inventory.
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A buyer’s market exists when inventory surpasses 6 months.
With 11 months of inventory, Sarnia-Lambton is now firmly in buyer’s market territory. However, breaking it down by price range tells a different story:
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Homes under $400,000 have just 2 months of inventory.
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Homes between $400,000 and $600,000 have 2.3 months of inventory.
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Homes between $600,000 and $800,000 have 6.5 months of inventory.
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Homes between $800,000 and $1 million have 9 months of inventory.
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Luxury homes above $1.3 million have a staggering 25 months of inventory.
This uneven distribution of inventory means that lower-priced homes are still selling quickly, while higher-end properties are taking significantly longer to move.
Pricing Trends: A Slight Dip
The average sale price for March 2025 stands at $638,000, slightly up from $630,000 last year. However, the average sale price for March alone was $465,000, down 1% from $487,000 in March 2024.
Another key indicator, days on market (DOM), has increased. In March 2025, homes took 45 days on average to sell, compared to 34 days last year. This confirms that homes are sitting longer before selling, a classic sign of a shifting market.
Seller vs. Buyer Opportunities
This market presents opportunities depending on your position:
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If you’re selling a home under $600,000, conditions are still in your favor. Demand remains strong, and homes are selling quickly with competitive offers.
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If you’re looking to upgrade to a higher price bracket, now is an excellent time. With increased inventory in the $600,000+ range, buyers have more negotiating power, leading to better deals and favorable terms.
The Goldilocks Phenomenon: A Unique Market Moment
Market analysts are describing this period as a “Goldilocks” moment—not too hot, not too cold. We’re in a window where interest rates are expected to decrease, providing an opportunity for buyers before demand picks up later in the year.
Interest rates saw a drop in March, and projections suggest further reductions ahead. While they may never return to ultra-low pandemic levels, there is a strong possibility of rates settling in the low 3% range, which could spur more buying activity as we move into Q3 of 2025.
Looking Ahead: What to Expect in Q2 and Beyond
Uncertainty remains a factor in decision-making, particularly with upcoming federal elections and potential tariff changes. However, many economists predict that by the end of Q2, market activity will accelerate as more clarity emerges.
For buyers and sellers alike, staying informed and acting strategically will be key in navigating the shifting Sarnia-Lambton real estate market. If you’re considering making a move, now is the time to assess your options before market conditions evolve.
For personalized advice on buying or selling in today’s market, feel free to reach out. Blue Coast Realty is here to help guide you through the opportunities and challenges of 2025’s real estate landscape.
